Pakistan’s GDP growth outlook took center stage as Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb unveiled the Economic Survey 2024-25. He projected a 2.7% GDP growth for the current fiscal year, presenting it as a sign of steady recovery in a volatile global environment.
Ambitious Growth Target
According to the National Accounts Committee, GDP grew by 1.37% in Q1, 1.53% in Q2, and 2.4% in Q3 of FY25. To meet the projected 2.7% annual figure, the economy would need a significant 5.5% growth in the final quarter. Aurangzeb defended the projection, stating, “These are official estimates, and we stand by them.”
This marks the third consecutive year the government may miss its annual growth target, with last year’s figure at 2.5% and a contraction of 0.2% in 2023.
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Agriculture Shows Mixed Trends
The agriculture sector contributed 23.54% to GDP and employed over 37% of the workforce. Despite extreme weather, it grew by 0.56%. Livestock led the sector with 4.72% growth, while fisheries and forestry grew by 1.42% and 3.03% respectively.
However, the crops sub-sector declined by 6.82%, with key crops dropping 13.49% and cotton ginning down by 19.03%. Officials blamed harsh climate conditions and reduced sowing. Yet, other crops grew by 4.78%, showing potential for diversification.
Industry Bounces Back
Industrial growth rebounded to 4.8%, up from a negative 1.4% last year. Construction saw a 6.6% rise, and electricity, gas, and water sectors also performed well. Small-scale manufacturing edged up by 1.3%, but large-scale manufacturing declined.
Bright spots included autos with a 40% surge, wearable apparel up by 8%, textiles by 2%, and petroleum products by 4.5%. However, declines in chemicals, iron, and steel raised concerns.
Services and Tech Sectors Expand
The services sector grew by 2.9%, slightly higher than last year’s 2.2%. The information and communication sector led the way with a strong 6.5% increase.
Aurangzeb remained confident, calling the year a “turnaround story” and stressing the need to address weak sectors while building on gains.
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