The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning about rising global temperatures. Its latest report forecasts that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will be significantly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to the report, the planet will likely experience a temperature increase between 1.2°C and 1.9°C compared to the average from 1850 to 1900.
There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than 2024, the warmest year on record so far. Even more concerning, the report finds an 86% chance that at least one of these years will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
The WMO report does not forecast individual yearly values but highlights the broader trend. It paints a troubling picture for the near future if global emissions are not rapidly curtailed.
Five-Year Averages Show Alarming Trend
The risk of the planet breaching the critical 1.5°C threshold over a five-year average has grown rapidly. The report states a 70% chance that the average global temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5°C.
This figure has risen significantly compared to previous years. In the 2024-2028 forecast, the risk was 47%, and in the 2023-2027 forecast, it was 32%. These numbers reveal how quickly the climate is changing and how likely it is that the world will cross a dangerous warming limit in the short term.
The 1.5°C threshold is a key target set in the Paris Agreement. Scientists warn that passing this mark will increase the risk of irreversible damage to the planet.
More Warming Means More Climate Disasters
Each fraction of a degree in global warming leads to more extreme weather and environmental destruction. The report warns that higher temperatures will cause deadlier heatwaves, more extreme rainfall, worsening droughts, and accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice.
Oceans are also heating at a record pace, leading to rising sea levels that threaten coastal communities worldwide. The ongoing glacier melt in areas like the Swiss Alps is one dramatic example of climate risks becoming reality.
The WMO emphasizes that these impacts are no longer distant threats. They are already disrupting lives and economies across the globe. Immediate and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to avoid the worst consequences.
The new data adds urgency to international climate negotiations. It also reinforces the importance of global cooperation in addressing the climate crisis ahead of the COP30 conference in Brazil.