India’s gold price forecast is turning more bullish than ever, as experts predict rates may soon touch Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams. With global economic instability on the rise, investors are rushing toward the safety of gold, causing prices to climb rapidly.
Tariff Tensions and Recession Fears
The surge in gold prices is closely tied to rising fears of a recession in the United States, sparked by former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff policies. These measures are fueling trade tensions globally, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Goldman Sachs, a global brokerage firm, has projected that gold could reach $3,700 per ounce in the short term. If trade conflicts escalate, prices may even hit $4,500 per ounce. If these international projections hold true, domestic prices in India could rise sharply — possibly to Rs 1 lakh or even Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
Gold’s Historic Rally
Gold has already rewarded Indian investors handsomely. Over the last five years, prices have more than doubled. On April 17, 2020, gold was priced at Rs 44,906 per 10 grams. Fast forward to April 17, 2025, and it reached Rs 95,239 — a gain of over 110 percent. In 2025 alone, gold prices have surged nearly 25 percent.
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Expert Views on the Rally
Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity and Currency at HDFC Securities, attributes the ongoing rally to fears of a trade war and looming recession. “Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against uncertainty,” Gupta said. He cited comments from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that a 1% increase in tariffs could potentially reduce US economic growth by 0.10%.
Despite gains in the stock market, analysts believe gold’s upward trend has room to continue. Gupta emphasized that key drivers — such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and economic uncertainty — remain firmly in place. “Any correction in gold should be treated as a buying opportunity,” he advised.
Support and Resistance Levels
Navneet Damani, Group Senior Vice President at Motilal Oswal, echoed similar optimism. He said the gold outlook remains “constructive” due to persistent inflationary pressures, ongoing trade tensions, and increased central bank purchases. According to Damani, gold has strong support around Rs 91,000 per 10 grams and resistance near Rs 99,000 in the near term.
He suggested investors follow a “buy on dips” strategy, especially while global policy risks and trade concerns persist. “These factors make gold a consistently attractive option for preserving value,” Damani noted.
Why Investors Are Watching Gold
With inflation staying high and economic risks mounting, many investors are reevaluating their portfolios. Gold, traditionally seen as a safe store of value, is regaining importance. As uncertainties continue to cloud the global economy, especially due to Trump’s trade strategies, gold may remain a reliable asset for wealth protection.
All eyes are now on how geopolitical developments unfold — and how far gold prices will rise in response.
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